Wednesday, December 10, 2008

How I Found Security In An Unsecure World

Who says it's all gloom and doom this Christmas?
Taking our minds off of the economy for a nanosecond let's look at the good news on the geopolitical level.

I know that you think that I'm all about sparkle and bling but I do on occasion step out of my glitter ghetto and attend Bennett Ramberg's seminars on Global Security.

Tonight we had a presentation by Rand senior advisor and specialist on Terrorism, Counterinsurgency and Homeland Security, Brian Jenkins. Brian's presentation was on his latest book "Will Terrorists Go Nuclear?"

The gist of the presentation is too long to go into detail about here but the basic premise is that we are dealing with two unique situations, Global Terrorism or the effect of what Terrorism can do to us and Global Terror or our actual reaction to our expectation of Global Terrorism. Included in this is the distinction between Weapons of Mass Destruction and Weapons of Mass Effect.

Brian's basic analysis comes down to the fact that while we live in a time of nuclear proliferation, especially with Pyongyang and Tehran entering into the nuclear club, the actual threat of a nuclear attack by Al Qaeda is much lower than what the media portrays. It's all about intention and capability.

Al Qaeda has run one of the most efficient media campaigns in history and just because they say they can or will do something, they might not actually, at this point or even in the near future, be able to do so. And with a 24 hour news cycle...the more outrageous the acts that Al Qaeda threatens, the more face time they get in the international media.

This isn't to say that terrorism isn't a continuing threat, as the attack in Mumbai has shown us just last week or so ago. But the havoc created by 10 men with AK-47's and some well placed explosions shows how little it takes, in actual manpower backed by a well orchestrated strategy, to have a tremendous result.

Are there still risks? Of course. But the bottom line is this...don't sit around worrying about another Hiroshima. we can get back to the real threats to our way of life: corrupt politicians, over taxation, government waste, inflation, deflation or stagnation whatever your flavor and executive compensation coupled with mass layoffs.

And to shopping!

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